Dave the Wave 148.8K followers
@davthewave
A
71.6 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 02:35 UTC
Dave the Wave is a pseudonymous analyst known for using his Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model to accurately identify long-term macro market cycle bottoms and tops. However, from a skeptical standpoint, his model tends to generate heavily overextended nominal price targets during bull market expansion phases. While his directional calls and cycle-timing indicators show robust technical utility, his specific six-figure targets frequently overshoot actual cycle peaks.
Calls found
21
Resolved calls
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Calls (21)
Speculated that Bitcoin’s multi-year bear market correction was "very nearly at, or in" the bottom band of his LGC support channel at approximately $3,200.
Bitcoin printed its cycle capitulation low of ~$3,122 on December 15, 2018, before beginning a steady recovery.
Identified the rapid run-up to nearly $14,000 as an anomalous "mini-parabola" and predicted that this spike would experience a severe correction, dropping back to "just above $6,000" by the end of 2019.
Bitcoin peaked at $13,880 in late June 2019, reversed into a multi-month downtrend, and hit a yearly bottom of $6,425 in December 2019.
Daily Hodl: "Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $6500 Says BTC Gearing Up for Major Move"
Expected a short-term bounce to $9,500, followed by a correction finding a solid technical support floor around $8,300 (or $6,000–$7,000 in a worse-case scenario) between March and May 2020.
The COVID-19 black swan panic hit global markets. On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin collapsed violently to a low of ~$3,850, completely crushing his expected support model.
Daily Hodl: "Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $6500 Says BTC Gearing Up for Major Move"
Warned that Bitcoin was severely overextended at the top of the LGC channel near $64,000, calling for a major crash/collapse in May 2021.
Bitcoin peaked in mid-April 2021 at $64,895, then crashed dramatically in May 2021, bottoming out at approximately $30,000.
Benzinga: "Analyst Who Predicted May 2021 Crypto Crash Now Says..."
Predicted that Bitcoin's diminishing returns would prevent it from breaking past $100,000 by December 2021, invalidating the S2F model if it failed to do so.
Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 at $69,000 and fell back down to ~$46,000 by December 2021, failing to hit $100k.
YouTube / Benjamin Cowen: "Dave the Wave - Bitcoin & the Logarithmic Growth Curve"
Estimated that the macro trend would still carry Bitcoin to a cycle peak of $100,000 sometime in 2022.
Bitcoin entered a brutal 2022 bear market, collapsing from $47,000 in January 2022 down to a macro bottom of ~$15,476 in November 2022.
Benzinga: "...but then incorrectly called for the apex crypto to reach $100,000 in 2022."
Pointed to the bottom band of the LGC at ~$16,000 as a strong macro "buy zone," claiming Bitcoin was poised to easily "do a 10x over the next couple of years," implying a macro target of roughly $160,000 by late 2024/early 2025.
Correct in identifying the absolute macro bottom of the bear market as a generationally lucrative "buy zone". However, the peak return fell short of a 10x move, topping out at a ~7x return ($126,198 vs. his $160,000 target).
Benzinga: "Bitcoin Could Easily Rally To $160,000 Says Crypto Analyst"
Set a firm technical target of $42,000 for Bitcoin to hit by the end of 2023, which he noted would officially lift it out of the LGC "buy zone".
Bitcoin steadily ascended throughout 2023 and closed the year trading at exactly ~$42,265 on December 31, 2023.
BeInCrypto: "Bitcoin Surpasses $25,000, Signaling New Bull Run..."
Published a long-term macro target pointing to $180,000 for late 2024.
While Bitcoin experienced a massive bull market in 2024, it topped out in December 2024 at ~$108,268, far below the $180k target.
Benzinga: "Analyst Who Predicted May 2021 Crypto Crash Now Says Bitcoin Set To Surge To This Price By 2024"
Suggested that a healthy 38% pullback from the 2023 local highs down to $24,000 was highly likely and would represent a strong buying opportunity.
Bitcoin corrected down to a local bottom of ~$24,900 in September 2023, but did not reach $24,000, before rallying aggressively.
Coinpedia / Binance Square: "Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Predict Major Price Move Ahead"
Shared an analysis claiming that the ETH/BTC ratio was completing a falling wedge at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, predicting that Ethereum would heavily outperform Bitcoin in the coming years.
Ethereum continuously underperformed Bitcoin over the next two years. The ETH/BTC ratio broke down from the falling wedge, invalidating the technical thesis.
CryptoRank: "Will Ethereum Flip Bitcoin? Crypto Analyst Explains How"
Suggested that Bitcoin could run back up to its previous all-time highs of ~$69,000 in Q4 2023 due to a pre-halving "mini-parabola".
Bitcoin rallied in late 2023 but only reached a peak of around $44,000 in December. It did not reclaim $69,000 until March 2024.
NewsBTC: "New All-Time Highs For Bitcoin In 2023? Analyst Shares Ultra Bullish Prediction"
Suggested Bitcoin could rise as high as $300,000 based on his LGC indicator, with a short-term target of $100,000+ for the end of 2024.
His short-term target of $100k+ by late 2024 was validated ($108,268). However, his macro target of $300,000 for 2025 was a severe overshoot, as the cycle peaked at $126,198.
Benzinga: "Famous Analyst Dave The Wave Says Bitcoin Still Has Wiggle Room, Sets $300,000 Target"
Asserted that a correction down to the $50k range was a healthy pause setting the stage for a strong finish to 2024 and an ultimate target of $220,000 by the end of 2025.
While correct that the $50k dip was a great buying opportunity, his target of $220,000 by end of year 2025 was over double the actual price of Bitcoin at that time (~$87k).
CryptoDnes: "Should We Expect a Strong Bitcoin (BTC) Performance in Q4?"
Predicted that Bitcoin, trading in an ascending channel, would reach a target of $112,000 by December 25, 2024.
Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 at ~$108,268 and closed the month at ~$93,429, missing the exact $112k target but coming within 4% of it at the local top.
Benzinga: "Crypto Analyst Foresees Pre-Christmas Bitcoin Price Surge"
Speculated that Bitcoin's broader ascending channel pointed to a price of $150,000 by April 2025.
The price never reached $150,000 in April 2025 (or at any point during the cycle, peaking at ~$126k in October), trading around $94,200 in April.
CryptoDnes: "Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $150K by April"
Pointed to the weekly Gaussian channel median line to project a target of $180,000 for December 2025.
Bitcoin did not reach $180,000. It topped out at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, before dropping back to ~$87,508 by December.
Blog Tien Ao / Dave the Wave X Post: "BTC có thể vọt lên 180.000 USD trong chu kỳ này!"
Framed a correction down to ~$107,000 as a "shakeout before the breakout," using Elliott Wave theory to predict a final leg up to $180,000 by late 2025.
Correct in identifying the ~$107k area as a launching pad for a final cycle breakout to $126,198, but incorrect on the ultimate peak target of $180k.
Pintu News: "Bitcoin Price Increase Prediction: Analyst Dave The Wave..."
Identified $95,000 as critical near-term resistance and $100,000 as a massive psychological barrier, warning that the bull run would only be back "all in" if Bitcoin could decisively reclaim six figures.
Bitcoin experienced a minor bounce in January 2026, topping out at ~$97,860, but failed to sustain momentum or break $100,000, before retreating further.
U.Today / TradingView: "'All In' for Bull Run If BTC Breaks Six Figures, Top Analyst Says"
Stated that Bitcoin had corrected deep enough to officially enter the lower "buying zone" of his LGC model (around the $65,000–$73,000 range), though he cautioned that the correction could still drag on.
Bitcoin continued to consolidate and trend slowly downward, trading between $60,000 and $73,000 through the spring.
Yellow Korea on Binance Square: "Veteran analyst claims Bitcoin has entered the buy zone"
Defined a drop into the low-$60,000s as a "secondary drop" back to the very bottom band of LGC support, signaling that the correction is nearing its cycle bottom.
Too early to definitively evaluate, but structurally the LGC support band has once again held as a local floor for the correction.
BNC: "Is Bitcoin Nearing a Cycle Bottom? What Dave the Wave's Chart Is Signaling"
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