Bitcoin · power law · buying the floor
Every time Bitcoin fell to its power-law floor was, in hindsight, a gift. Drag the line across the full price history. Whenever the price sat within a set band of the floor (5% by default, adjustable), this shows the annualised return you'd have earned holding from there to today's live price.
01 / THE TIME MACHINE
About the slider. It is approximate, not deadly accurate. A browser scales this long, compressed chart down to your screen, so the line lands on a date within a week or two rather than one exact day. That does not change the conclusion. Sweep it slowly across the green floor zones and the CAGR stays high right across the whole area. The point is not that you had to nail a single perfect bottom. It is that accumulating, or dollar-cost-averaging, anywhere near the floor has historically produced excellent compound returns.
02 / THE BACKTEST
Instead of one perfect buy, run the rule mechanically: invest a fixed amount every week the weekly low sits within the band of the floor, from your chosen start year, and hold every coin to today's live price. The band is the same ±% you set above.
| Year | Buys | Buy-price range | Cum. invested | Cum. BTC | Value @ today | Multiple |
|---|
Read it honestly. Three things this shows: the rule rarely fires (whole bull years have zero qualifying weeks, so you sit in cash and deploy little), it assumes you bought the exact weekly low at moments of maximum fear, and it is survivorship-flattered — it measures the one asset that kept following the line. Start in 2010 and the result is a meaningless artifact (BTC was under $1), so the start-year selector defaults to a more realistic window.
03 / THE CATCH
Buying the exact floor looks easy on a finished chart and is brutal in real time: the floor-touches were the moments of maximum fear, when every headline said it was over. The returns here are real, but they reward conviction at the worst-feeling moment, not chart-reading after the fact.
Past returns are not future returns. This uses weekly low prices, so it assumes you bought the exact dip, which nobody does in real time. It is survivorship-flattered: it measures the one asset that kept following the line. The floor is a regularity, not a guarantee, and it has briefly broken before. Nothing here is investment advice.
See how the floor is built on the explainer, or stress-test the maths on Disprove the Math.