Bitcoin ยท power law ยท live snapshot

Bitcoin Power Law, today

Everything the model says right now: floor, fair value, health, a 4-year projection and the full historical breach record. Bookmark this page, it updates every time you load it.

๐ŸŸ  Bitcoin Power-Law Floor

as of 2026-09-15 ยท model v1.0 ยท frozen 6 Jun 2026

BTC price

$76.4K

Power-law floor

$60.4K

Fair value

$151.8K

Price / floor

1.26ร—

Distance above floor

+26.5%

Model status

๐ŸŸข INTACT

  • Current price is above the modelled floor
  • No sustained floor breach in the trailing 6 months
  • Model v1.0 parameters unchanged since 6 Jun 2026

101days

The floor has not been broken

Since the model froze 6 Jun 2026.

ceiling (+2ฯƒ) fair value (trend) floor (โˆ’2ฯƒ) real price (weekly)
โ†” hover or drag the chart to read any date
Both axes are log scales, so the power-law floor, fair-value and ceiling lines are straight. Bitcoin's real weekly price has stayed inside this corridor except for three brief dips in fifteen years (2015, 2016, and the March 2020 crash) โ€” see the full breach timeline on today's model page.

Four years out

Floor, 15 Sep 2030

$192,534

Floor-to-floor CAGR

+33.6%

If BTC does nothing clever and simply falls to its own floor 4 years from now. See the interactive calculator.

Price / fair value

0.50ร—

What is the floor? The power-law floor is this model's long-term statistical support level, derived from the fitted Bitcoin power-law trend and the observed distribution of historical price residuals.

It is not a guarantee that Bitcoin cannot trade below this level. A sustained or significant breach would be evidence against the model, not a reason to move the line (see Methodology).

0.398ร— fair valueThis site's frozen โˆ’2ฯƒ methodology (ฯƒ โ‰ˆ 0.20 in log10), a two-standard-deviation band around the fitted trend.
0.42ร— fair valueBGeometrics' operational multiplier, anchored to Bitcoin's single worst historical drawdown rather than a ฯƒ band. See What the Floor Actually Is for the full comparison.

Both land in the same neighbourhood because they're describing the same fifteen years of history two different ways, not because one confirms the other independently.

Historical floor breaches

Every real historical point where Bitcoin's weekly close or intraday low fell below this site's own modelled floor, computed directly from the same data and formula as the dashboard above, nothing hand-picked. Weekly data means duration is accurate to the nearest week.

PeriodDurationWorst priceFloor at the timeDeepest deviation
12 Mar 2020 1 week $3,913 $4,447 12.0% below
28 Jul 2016 1 week $479 $480 0.3% below
13 Aug 2015 โ€“ 15 Oct 2015 10 weeks $188 $222 15.4% below

The floor is a statistical support level, not a guaranteed hard lower bound, brief excursions below it are expected roughly 2-3% of the time for a โˆ’2ฯƒ band and don't by themselves invalidate the model. See Methodology for the actual falsification condition.

Don't trust the model.
Try to break it.

The strongest test of a model is not how well it explains the past, but whether it survives attempts to disprove it.

Attack the model โ†’
Methodology & Evidence The Power Law, Explained What the Floor Actually Is Full Calculator The Thesis