Bitcoin · a macro indicator, live
A plain rolling average of Bitcoin's weekly close over the trailing 200 weeks, about 3.85 years, roughly one halving cycle. No fitted curve, no parameters to argue about. Just the real closes, averaged. Price has closed below it only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history, each one now visible in hindsight as a moment of maximum pessimism.
01 / WHAT IT IS
Take Bitcoin's closing price at the end of each of the last 200 weeks and average them. That's the whole calculation. Every week that passes, the oldest week drops off the back of the window and the newest one joins the front, so the line only ever reflects real, already-happened prices, never a projection.
The 200-week window isn't arbitrary. It's long enough to average through an entire bull-bear cycle (Bitcoin's boom-bust rhythm has historically run close to four years, tracking the roughly-four-year halving schedule), so a single euphoric top or a single capitulation bottom can't swing it much on its own. It's also short enough to keep moving: by the time a new cycle's excess has fully cycled through the window, the average has caught up to reflect it.
Because it's a simple average of real closes rather than a fitted model, there's no equation to defend and no parameters that could be wrong. Unlike the power-law floor above, it makes no claim about a mathematical curve underlying price. The only thing that can be argued about is whether the past is a useful guide to the future, true of every chart-based indicator, not a weakness specific to this one.
02 / THE RECORD
Scanning the full weekly series, here is every episode where Bitcoin's price closed at or below its own 200-week moving average, deepest week of each episode shown. Computed directly from the data below, not a curated list.
| Week of | Close | 200WMA | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-08-26 | $222 | $233 | -4.8% |
| 2015-09-23 | $230 | $238 | -3.2% |
| 2020-03-18 | $5,358 | $5,519 | -2.9% |
| 2022-07-13 | $19,293 | $22,591 | -14.6% |
| 2022-07-27 | $21,267 | $22,751 | -6.5% |
| 2022-11-23 | $16,195 | $24,029 | -32.6% |
| 2023-06-14 | $25,921 | $26,471 | -2.1% |
| 2023-08-23 | $26,037 | $27,476 | -5.2% |
| 2023-09-13 | $25,836 | $27,735 | -6.8% |
| 2026-06-10 | $61,642 | $61,915 | -0.4% |
| 2026-07-01 | $58,534 | $62,523 | -6.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | $63,552 | $63,873 | -0.5% |
Every episode above the table resolved with price recovering back above the average. That's a track record, not a guarantee the next one will too.
03 / THE CHART
Log scale, because Bitcoin has moved through several orders of magnitude and a linear axis would flatten everything before 2020 into the floor.
04 / HOW TO USE IT
A cheapness gauge, not a timing signal. When price sits at or below the 200WMA, Bitcoin is historically about as cheap as it gets relative to its own recent past. That's not the same as knowing the exact week to buy, the average has no opinion on that.
A lagging line by construction. Averaging 200 weeks of closes means the line always trails spot price. It reacts to what already happened; it doesn't predict what happens next.
It has broken before. Late 2022, in the wake of FTX's collapse, price closed more than 30% below the 200WMA, by far the deepest breach in the record above. A support line that gets tested that hard isn't an unbreakable floor. It's a line that has, so far, always been bought back above.
Prefer a fitted curve instead of a rolling average? See the power-law floor calculator or how the floor is derived.