Bitcoin · spot ETF era · realised return
On 11 January 2024 the first US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading, the first regulated wrapper for direct BTC exposure. This tracks the actual annualised return (CAGR) Bitcoin has paid from that week's price to today's live spot, recalculated every day this page loads.
01 / THE NUMBER
Annualised return (CAGR) since the ETF launch week
From 11 Jan 2024 to today, 978 days, 2.68 years.
02 / HOW TO READ IT
Every other CAGR tool on this site measures against the power-law floor or fair value, a model. This one measures against a single dated, real-world event, the day Bitcoin got its first regulated, exchange-traded US wrapper. It's a natural before/after marker for the "institutional adoption" era of Bitcoin's price history.
For comparison, the site's own frozen power-law fair-value line implies +41.7% CAGR over the identical stretch. The gap between that number and the actual return above is how far real price has run ahead of, or fallen behind, the long-run trend since the ETFs opened.
The window only ever gets longer and the entry price never changes, so the CAGR here drifts a little each day even with a flat price, and swings with every move in the live spot. Reload any day and it reflects that day's numbers.
Important. One realised path since one date is a sample size of one. A CAGR measured on a two-to-three-year window is highly sensitive to the exact start and end prices, and will look very different a year from now regardless of what actually happens next. This is a historical fact, not a forecast, and nothing here is financial advice.