Fair value = 10-16.493 × (days)5.688,
floor = fair × 0.398 (−2σ),
ceiling = fair × 2.512 (+2σ), σ = 0.2.
The model is computed in USD. AUD figures use the live USD→AUD rate.
The Power Law is a theoretical model, not investment advice. The floor has
historically held except for three brief dips (Aug–Oct 2015, a touch in Jul 2016, and the Mar 2020 crash). See today's model snapshot for the full breach timeline.
About the CAGR figures:
Model CAGR (line growth): how fast the model's own
lines rise between the reference date and the projected year. Fair value and
floor share this rate exactly, because the floor is a fixed fraction of fair
value (≈0.40, the −2σ band) and that multiplier cancels in the
ratio. It's currency-independent.
Return: buy now → fair value, the annualised
return if you bought at today's live market price and the price landed on the
projected year's fair value line.
Return: buy now → floor, the same, but landing on
the projected floor instead, a conservative, worst-case-ish
scenario. This can be negative if today's price already sits above the future
floor. Both "buy now" figures start from today and run to the target date.
This website is inspired by @Giovann35084111's post on reddit.