Bitcoin · power law · floor-to-floor return
Drag the white line to any Bitcoin price. That becomes your entry, today. The model then asks a blunt question: if Bitcoin does nothing clever and simply falls to its power-law floor four years from now, what annual return would you still be left with?
01 / THE MODEL
02 / HOW TO READ IT
Four years is roughly one halving cycle, long enough for a full boom and bust. The power-law floor is the model's estimate of Bitcoin's worst realistic price on that date, a line real price has only dipped below on three brief occasions in fifteen years (2015, 2016, and the March 2020 crash). So this isn't a price target. It's closer to a stress test: the return you'd still walk away with if the next four years go about as badly as the model allows.
Most of the time your entry price sits above today's actual power-law floor (the blue reference line), because that's where Bitcoin usually trades. The CAGR shown is what survives even from an entry above the floor, once four years of the floor's own growth catches up to it.
Drag high enough and the implied CAGR goes negative. That's the model telling you the entry price is rich enough that even a full four years of floor growth wouldn't recover it, if the price genuinely fell all the way to the floor and stayed there.
Important. This tool assumes Bitcoin's price on the target date equals the modelled power-law floor exactly, which is a deliberately pessimistic assumption, not a forecast. Historically price has spent most of its time well above the floor. The floor itself can break. This is a model illustration, not a guarantee, a price target, or financial advice.