Bitcoin · power law · sources
This site didn't invent the power law. It builds on the people who found it, formalised it, and chart it. Here are the primary sources, and a brief note on what each one contributed.
01 / THE THEORY
Giovanni Santostasi, physicist (PhD)
Santostasi turned the power-law observation into a full theory. He argues Bitcoin's price tracks a power law of time (price ∝ t⁶ in his derivation, ≈t⁵·⁷ empirically), driven not by scarcity but by self-reinforcing network-effect feedback loops: adoption grows as a power of time, price follows users² (Metcalfe's law), and hash-rate follows price², each feeding the next. He frames these relationships as mechanistically necessary rather than mere curve-fitting, and treats the model as falsifiable over roughly the coming decade. This site's floor uses his parameterization. (We stress-test the maths on the Disprove the Math page.)
02 / THE CHART
Matthew Mezinski, Porkopolis Economics
Mezinski maintains the widely-cited "Chart": Bitcoin's price plotted against a power-law regression of days since the genesis block, wrapped in percentile bands (≈67% and ≈95% of historical observations) rather than standard-deviation bands, a living, continuously-updated view of where price sits inside the corridor, with an R² above 0.95. A memorable framing from his work: price doubles roughly every 13% increase in Bitcoin's age. Porkopolis Economics more broadly covers monetary economics, money-supply metrics and Bitcoin through charts, writing and podcasts.
03 / THE CORRIDOR
Harold Christopher Burger, September 2019
One of the earliest rigorous public treatments. Burger fit power laws in log–log space and introduced the idea of a corridor bounded by two power laws (a support floor and a resistance ceiling) separating "normal" from "bull-market" behaviour (using RANSAC to handle outliers, R² ≈ 0.93). His long-range projections were strikingly prescient: $100k between 2021 and 2028, then never below it, and $1M between 2028 and 2037. The "corridor" framing that this site's chart uses traces directly back to this post.