PlanB 2.2M followers

@100trillionUSD
B
67.5 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 07:19 UTC

PlanB is a highly influential pseudonymous analyst known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) models, which attempt to forecast Bitcoin's price based on supply scarcity. His track record is characterized by extreme bullish bias and model over-fitting, often leading to spectacular misses on high-profile price targets. While his cyclical trading rules and bearish stance on Ethereum have shown some validity, his core quantitative models have consistently failed to hit their projected average price targets.

Calls found
10
Resolved calls
9
Accuracy
44
Sample size
76
Verifiability
88
Specificity
80
Consistency
100

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PlanB rating

Calls (10)

1 Mar 2019 bullish partially correct verified target: $55,000
Projected that after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio would drive market capitalization to $1 trillion, translating to an average price of ~$55,000 per BTC during the 2020-2024 halving cycle.
Bitcoin's peak of ~$69,000 exceeded the target, but the actual average price for the 2020-2024 cycle was ~$34,000, falling roughly 38% short of the projected baseline.
27 Apr 2020 bullish incorrect verified target: $288,000
Introduced the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) model predicting Bitcoin would reach an average price of $288,000 during the 2020-2024 cycle.
Bitcoin peaked at ~$69,000 in late 2021 and its cycle average was ~$34,000, failing to reach anywhere near the $288,000 model projection.
20 Jun 2021 bullish incorrect verified target: >$135,000 by December 2021
Published a 'worst-case scenario' floor target for monthly closes in late 2021: August >$47k, Sept >$43k, Oct >$63k, Nov >$98k, Dec >$135k.
While August and September targets were achieved, the targets for October, November ($57k close vs $98k target), and December ($46k close vs $135k target) failed catastrophically.
21 Apr 2023 bullish partially correct verified target: $532,000
Laid out a cycle roadmap projecting price to hit >$60k before the April 2024 halving, $100k post-halving floor, and a cycle target of $532,000.
Correctly projected the pre-halving run-up above $60,000. However, the post-halving floor failed to hold at $100k (dropped to ~$58,076 in mid-2026), and the price peak of ~$126,198 missed the $532,000 target.
2 Jan 2024 bullish correct verified target: $100,000
Asserted that Bitcoin would break the $100,000 mark during the calendar year 2024.
Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark in November 2024, peaking near ~$106,000 in December 2024.
1 Jan 2025 bullish incorrect verified target: $250,000 to $1,000,000
Predicted Bitcoin would average $500,000 during the 2024-2028 halving cycle, with a peak range of $250,000 to $1,000,000 in 2025.
The actual 2025 bull market peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, which is well below the projected $250,000 minimum target, and the asset subsequently entered a correction.
20 Apr 2025 bearish correct reported
Ethereum is a "centralized, premined shitcoin" that is harmful and fundamentally flawed compared to Bitcoin due to its transition to Proof-of-Stake and flexible supply.
Ethereum's price and dominance struggled relative to Bitcoin, peaking under its 2021 ATH and crashing to around $1,800 in mid-2026, with the ETH/BTC ratio plunging to multi-year lows.
X (Twitter) Post
7 Jun 2026 bearish correct reported
Ethereum is "effectively dead" because the ETH/BTC chart shows no long-term uptrend, trading at 0.026 BTC, and the transition to PoS was "suicide".
Ongoing trend. Ethereum continues to trade weakly against Bitcoin around 0.026 - 0.028 BTC as of July 2026, supporting the claim of severe long-term underperformance.
X (Twitter) Post
15 Jul 2026 bullish pending reported target: $500,000
Despite recent market pullbacks, Bitcoin could still reach $500,000 ($250k - $1m range) during the current halving cycle (2026-2028).
Ongoing. Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$64,000.
X (Twitter) Post
Undated bullish incorrect reported target: $100,000
Repeatedly asserted in mid-to-late 2021 that Bitcoin was on track to reach $100,000 by December 2021.
Bitcoin failed to sustain its November ATH and closed December 2021 near ~$46,000, missing the $100,000 target.
Public tweets and cryptocurrency media interviews

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