Raoul Pal 1.2M followers
@RaoulGMI
B
58.7 / 100
Last researched 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC
Raoul Pal is a prominent macro investor who successfully timed major cyclical transitions, such as rotating from gold to crypto in late 2020 and accumulating Solana near its post-FTX bottom. However, his track record is severely marred by wildly over-optimistic price targets and a catastrophic failure to assess the systemic risks of Terra (LUNA). He frequently shifts the timeline for his predicted liquidity-driven 'Banana Zone' when explosive market runs fail to materialize.
Calls found
14
Resolved calls
13
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Calls (14)
Pal formulated a long-term theoretical valuation framework comparing Bitcoin's finite supply to gold, stating that the mathematical value of Bitcoin under this framework was $1,000,000 per coin, adding: 'I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000.'
While the $1,000,000 mathematical target remains unreached, his '90% wrong' hedge of $100,000 was fully validated over the subsequent decade as BTC cleared six figures, peaking near $124,531 in August 2025.
Real Vision TV / Reddit Archive
Pal predicted that Bitcoin would trade at $1,000,000 per coin within five years (by late 2025), driven by an 'enormous wall of money' as institutional rails and capital allocators adopted digital assets post-COVID-19.
While Pal correctly identified the onset of massive institutional adoption, the $1 million target was over-optimistic by a factor of eight, missing the actual 2025 peak of ~$124,531 by ~87%.
Stansberry Research Interview
Pal announced he had allocated 98% of his personal liquid net worth into a combination of Bitcoin and Ethereum (initially 75% BTC / 25% ETH) because 'Bitcoin will massively outperform gold'.
This portfolio allocation was timed exceptionally well. Within 12 months, BTC hit ~$69,000 (a 3.6x increase) and ETH peaked near $4,891 (an 8.1x increase) from his entry point.
Decrypt / Twitter Disclosure
Pal announced he was selling almost all of his Bitcoin to go 'all-in' on Ethereum, predicting that Ethereum would permanently outperform Bitcoin and that a 'flippening' (ETH overtaking BTC's market cap) was highly probable.
Exiting BTC completely for ETH proved to be a multi-year underperformance. The 'flippening' did not occur, and the ETH/BTC ratio collapsed to multi-year lows of 0.035 to 0.040 by mid-2026.
Decrypt
Pal predicted that Bitcoin would experience a parabolic year-end rally fueled by spot ETF expectations and central bank printing, driving the price to between $250,000 and $400,000 by March 2022 'at the latest'.
Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 and was caught in a macro downtrend by March 2022, trading between $38,000 and $45,000.
Bankless Interview / The Daily Hodl
Based on overlaying Ethereum's 2021 chart onto Bitcoin's 2017 chart, Pal predicted that Ethereum was set to hit 'north of $20,000' by March 2022 at the latest.
Ethereum topped out at $4,891 in November 2021. By March 2022, ETH had dropped into the $2,500–$3,000 range, missing the target by more than 85%.
Bankless Interview / The Daily Hodl
Pal tweeted a 'spooky' chart of ETH versus BTC in 2017, claiming that a 300% rally was set to begin 'tomorrow (ish)' and would push ETH into five figures by year-end.
This call marked the exact week of the macro market peak. Ethereum hit $4,891 and immediately entered a brutal 12-month bear market, collapsing to a low of ~$900 by June 2022.
Markets Insider / X
Following the collapse of FTX, when Solana plummeted into the single digits (~$8–$10), Pal called SOL the 'strongest horse' of the coming cycle, stating it was experiencing the same adoption curve setup that Ethereum did in 2018–2020.
Solana experienced a historic, asymmetric recovery, surging from its lows of ~$8 in December 2022 to over $100 by late 2023, and peaking near $260 in 2024–2025.
Real Vision / GMI Newsletters
Pal publicly 'poured cold water' on Balaji Srinivasan's hyperinflation bet that Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 in 90 days, calling the probability 'zero' while agreeing with Balaji's underlying concerns about regional bank insolvencies.
Bitcoin did not hyperinflate and traded in the $25,000–$30,000 range for the duration of the 90-day bet.
Interview with Anthony Pompliano / CryptoSlate
Pal highlighted a technical bull flag on the weekly XRP chart, claiming that if the price broke key resistance at $2.60, it would easily reach $5.50 to $7.00.
XRP failed to clear the $2.60 resistance, rejected the level, and consolidated downward alongside the broader altcoin market, failing to achieve the target range.
Binance Square / YouTube
Citing global M2 liquidity indicators, Pal predicted that Bitcoin would rise and surpass $140,000 by July 2025, followed by a mid-cycle consolidation in July and August.
Although the precise $140,000 target was missed by approximately 11% (peaking at ~$124,531 in mid-August 2025), his call regarding the upward direction through June-July and subsequent mid-cycle consolidation was highly accurate.
Real Vision YouTube / The Daily Hodl
Pal announced he had sold 100% of his Solana holdings to shift 70% of his liquid crypto portfolio into Sui (SUI), stating that the SUI/SOL chart had broken out and that SUI was set to dramatically outperform SOL.
Following Pal's shift in mid-2025, SUI was hit by a major DEX exploit and collapsed from its early 2025 highs of ~$5.35 to ~$0.74 by mid-2026, vastly underperforming Solana.
YouTube / GMI Update
Admitted the 'Banana Zone' was delayed, but predicted 2026 would be a 'monumental year' with liquidity peaking in Q2 2026.
By July 2026, the market is in a deep consolidation/slump with 'Extreme Fear' readings, and the expected 'Banana Zone' mania has not materialized.
Predicted Bitcoin could reach the high $90k range by the end of 2026, while remaining bullish on SUI, TAO, and ZCash.
Currently, in July 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000. The prediction is still active.
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